Data Disrespect

The numbers do not care about your team

NFLOctober 5, 2026

Bryce Young Is Good Now (Sorry), and Houston's 0‑4 Is Not C.J. Stroud's Fault

Week 4 QB report, written Monday morning before Falcons-Saints. Every number below comes from play-by-play, not vibes.

Panthers quarterback in a black No. 9 jersey and silver helmet scrambles with the ball and points downfield.

Four weeks in, the league has finally given us enough games to say real things. Here are the real things.

BRYCE YOUNG HAD THE BEST SUNDAY OF ANYBODY

Forty-four dropbacks, a 32-26 win over Detroit, and the top grade of the week by a mile. And before you say "it was Detroit": Young has already played Chicago and Atlanta, two of the toughest defenses in the league, plus Cleveland, and he's still sitting at +23.8 for the season. He's also been under pressure more than almost anybody, and he's thrown the ball away 18 times, more than double anyone else. That's not a scared quarterback. That's a quarterback who's decided to stop giving games away. The old "bust" label is officially out of date.

HOUSTON IS 0-4 AND IT'S NOT STROUD

C.J. Stroud lost 34-30 to Dallas and graded as the second-best QB of the week. His season grade is +11.6, which is the only positive number among the QBs of the winless teams (Tennessee, Miami, the Chargers, Tampa all sit in the red). Whatever is wrong in Houston, it's not the guy under center.

THE GUYS WHO WON AND SHOULDN'T HAVE

Daniel Jones graded -26.3 in London and the Colts beat Washington 30-13 anyway. Patrick Mahomes is 4-0 and had a negative game in Vegas, which feels like it should come with a fine. The Vikings are 4-0 with Kyler Murray at -7.4 and Carson Wentz at -8.7 on the year. The defense is doing the quarterbacking over there.

THE GUYS WHO GOT ROBBED

Joe Burrow lost but graded +19.1 against a good Jacksonville defense. Josh Allen lost and graded +15.8 against a good Patriots defense. Both are the "played fine, lost anyway" kind of loss. Nobody should be doing postmortems on those two.

LAMAR IS GREAT, BUT CHECK THE MENU

Fifteen of 20, 222 yards, two touchdowns in the first half, then an ankle injury on a sack and he never came back. The Ravens won 24-18, and he's listed as questionable to return, which is football for "we'll see." One more thing before the coronation: two of Baltimore's four opponents so far, Dallas and Tennessee, have been bottom-third defenses. He's elite. He's also been eating well.

THE BAD NEWS SECTION

Geno Smith had the lowest grade of the week at -50.7, but that came on only 16 dropbacks against Chicago, one of the best defenses in the league by EPA per play. Fair fight? No. Pretty? Also no. Justin Herbert (-45.3) and Malik Willis (-34.6) don't get the same pass. Jalen Hurts (-22.5) has a sack problem the line can't be blamed for: seven of his eight charted sacks were on him. He's good. That was bad.

QUICK HITS

Aaron Rodgers: three of his four charted interceptions were flukes (tipped, deflected, or freak bounces), including one of the two he threw Thursday night in Cleveland. Only one was a real mistake. His record looks worse than his decisions.

Drake Maye: six charted interceptions through Week 3, and all six were his decision (he added another Sunday that isn't charted yet). Unlike Rodgers, there are no excuses in the data.

Brock Purdy: still the best QB in the league over a full season (+36.7, 4-0).

Washington: Marcus Mariota hurt his knee early in London, and rookie Athan Kaliakmanis took over. He graded -27.5. Jayden Daniels might be back next week.

Tampa Bay: Baker Mayfield is out several weeks with a dislocated thumb. Jalon Daniels started and graded about average, which is a win for a 0-4 team.

Monday night's Falcons-Saints game isn't in these numbers yet. Penix and Shough, you're up.

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