College football
Ohio State Lost at USC. The Numbers Say Shrug. The Betting Market Says Panic.
Ohio State slid from first to third in our rankings, and the biggest damage hit teams you weren't watching.
Week 9: Every FBS Team Ranked
All 138 teams through Week 9. Opponent-adjusted efficiency does the heavy lifting, with per-play production and the betting market as seasoning. No polls.
Week 8: Every FBS Team Ranked
All 138 teams through Week 8. Opponent-adjusted efficiency does the heavy lifting, with per-play production and the betting market as seasoning. No polls.
Five of the AP's Top Seven Lost on Saturday. The Numbers Say Four Were Coin Flips.
Georgia was a 19.5-point favorite and lost to Auburn, but efficiency says it was a toss-up. Only Alabama's loss was a real one.
Week 7: Every FBS Team Ranked
All 138 teams through Week 7. Opponent-adjusted efficiency does the heavy lifting, with per-play production and the betting market as seasoning. No polls.
UCLA Beat Oregon, and Our Own Rankings Still Had Oregon Eight Spots Ahead. Here's Why That's Wrong.
Our blend is mostly a rating that stopped updating after Week 4. We put season efficiency next to it, and the two disagree about Oregon, Texas and Penn State.
The AP's No. 1 Team Lost at Oklahoma. By the Numbers, It Was a Coin Flip, and Texas Was Seventh Anyway.
Six ranked teams lost Saturday. Four of them were flipping coins, one got outplayed by UCLA, and one lost on turnovers.
Week 6: Every FBS Team Ranked
All 138 teams through Week 6. Opponent-adjusted efficiency does the heavy lifting, with per-play production and the betting market as seasoning. No polls.
Miami's QB Just Played His Toughest Defense of the Year, And the Model Still Has Him Number One
Darian Mensah's worst raw stat line of the season was also his best win, and the numbers explain exactly why.
College QB Rankings: Week 5
All 158 qualifying quarterbacks through Week 5, graded on what their plays were worth against the defenses they faced. Sortable by any column.
Ole Miss Lost by 24 and Dropped Five Spots. The Numbers Say They're the 30th-Best Team in the Country.
The AP has Ole Miss ninth. Our numbers have them 30th. That is not a rounding error, that is a reputation doing the job a defense should be doing.
Week 5: Every FBS Team Ranked
All 138 teams through Week 5. Opponent-adjusted efficiency does the heavy lifting, with per-play production and the betting market as seasoning. No polls.
Ohio State Is Still #1. The More Interesting Story Is Two Blowouts That Weren't What They Looked Like.
The composite barely moved this week because one of its own inputs is stuck on last week's data. That's not nothing — it's a real reason to distrust small rank movement for exactly one more week.
College QB Rankings: Week 4
All 138 qualifying quarterbacks, by what their plays were worth — adjusted for who they played.
Week 4: Every FBS Team Ranked
All 138 teams through Week 4. Opponent-adjusted efficiency does the heavy lifting, with per-play production and the betting market as seasoning. No polls.
The #2 QB in America Isn't a Freshman Phenom — He's a Transfer Who Waited His Turn
Dylan Raiola had 37 dropbacks at Oregon. The numbers already think he's elite. That's either the best backup story of the year or a sample size about to eat someone alive.
Sports Betting: The 50/50 Myth, and Who's Really Winning Through Three Weeks of College Football
Real sportsbook bosses say the textbook explanation of how they make money is basically fiction. Here's what they actually do, and what it means for this season so far.
College QB Top 25: Week 3
The 25 best quarterbacks in the country by what their plays were worth — now adjusted for who they played.
Week 3: Every FBS Team Ranked
All 138 teams, corrected. Opponent-adjusted efficiency does the heavy lifting, with per-play production and the betting market as seasoning. No polls.
The AP's Number One Ranked Team Isn't Even In Our Top Five
A look at who the numbers say is a fraud, who's flying under the radar, and one undefeated team with a real problem hiding in plain sight.
