Tampa Bay Buccaneers Won 16-0 Without Completing a Pass. Penix Threw Four Picks. Week 8 Was Strange.
Some weeks the NFL gives you a clean story. This was not one of them.
Start in Tampa, in the rain. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Atlanta Falcons 16-0 and Baker Mayfield did not complete a single pass. He threw three, all incomplete, and added a scramble and a sack. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense that day was the run game: 56 rushes for 324 yards. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had five dropbacks all game, and the defense did the rest.
The game was played in heavy, sideways rain (the game data lists rain, 78 degrees and a 9 mph wind). That's the kind of weather that makes a ball slippery and makes a coaching staff decide it doesn't want to throw. It's the only Week 8 game with rain listed.
The other side of that is Michael Penix. Eight of 24. 125 yards. Four interceptions. A 12.0 passer rating. We grade every quarterback on every non-garbage dropback (expected points, completion rate over expected, how often he keeps the offense on schedule), adjust for the defense he faced and call zero average. Penix graded -75.8. That's against the toughest defense in the league by our numbers, so the adjustment already helped him, and it still looks like that.
Fair question: was it the rain? Probably some of it. A wet ball in heavy wind-driven rain doesn't help anybody. But all four interceptions were charted as real mistakes, not tipped balls or freak bounces. Rain explains some of this, but not 76 points below average.
Then there was the Cincinnati Bengals and the Tennessee Titans. The Cincinnati Bengals won 43-36, 79 points total. Joe Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdowns (and three picks), and Cam Ward answered with 304 yards and two touchdowns on the other sideline. Our grade took Burrow from +43.6 down to +31.0, because the Tennessee Titans have one of the softest defenses in football. Still a great day.
The Arizona Cardinals won 33-30 in overtime with two quarterbacks who graded 93 points apart. Jacoby Brissett went 10 of 23 for 119 yards with four sacks and was replaced in the third quarter (-45.9). Gardner Minshew came in, went 17 of 23 for 188 yards and three touchdowns, and graded +47.2, the best game of the week. That's only 20 dropbacks, so don't crown him, but it was a hell of a comeback.
Trevor Lawrence did something quiet and ridiculous. Fourteen passes, 210 yards, three touchdowns in a 42-7 win over the Indianapolis Colts. That's 15.0 yards a throw. He only needed 13 graded dropbacks before the game was over, and he graded +37.3.
And the scoreboard lied again. Josh Allen won 36-10 and graded -18.5. Matthew Stafford won 24-9 and graded -22.2. Aaron Rodgers won 27-6 and graded -10.0. Going the other way, Patrick Mahomes lost 28-24 at the Denver Broncos and graded +31.0, with 321 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against a tough defense.
Elsewhere on the pain scale: Deshaun Watson was sacked eight times, the most of any quarterback in the league that week. Bryce Young went down six times. The Los Angeles Chargers are 0-7 and the Tennessee Titans are 1-7.
The season board barely moved at the top: Caleb Williams (+32.2), Joe Burrow (+28.4), Brock Purdy (+26.1), Drake Maye (+24.5) and Trevor Lawrence (+24.2). Mahomes jumped from 14th to 7th. Young fell from 7th to 16th and Penix from 21st to 29th.