Caleb Williams Jumps to No. 1 on Our QB Rankings After Facing the Toughest Schedule of Any Top Quarterback

Last week the Chicago Bears quarterback was second, sitting behind Brock Purdy. This week he is first. Caleb Williams grades at +35.1 for the season, the only quarterback in the top tier, and the way he got there is the whole story: he has played the hardest set of defenses of anyone near the top, and he still came out on top.

Quick refresher on how we grade. Every dropback is scored on expected points, accuracy over expected, and whether it keeps the offense on schedule. Garbage time is thrown out. Then we adjust for how good the defense was. Zero is average. Plus is good. Minus is not.

THE SCHEDULE

Williams has played four games: the Minnesota Vikings (the second-toughest defense in the league by our numbers), the Atlanta Falcons (sixth-toughest), the New England Patriots (eighth) and one soft one, the Carolina Panthers. His opponents average out 6.3 points of expected points per 100 dropbacks tougher than normal. That is the toughest schedule of any quarterback in our top 15.

Purdy has played seven. Two of them were brutal, the Seattle Seahawks (the toughest defense in the league) and the Denver Broncos (fourth-toughest). The other five included the Miami Dolphins, Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders, three of the softest defenses we have measured. His schedule averages 3.1 tougher than normal, about half of what Williams faced.

So the adjustment gives Williams 5.9 points and Purdy 2.6.

DOES HE NEED THE HELP?

No. Before any adjustment, Williams is +29.2 and Purdy is +24.1. He leads either way. The schedule just widens a lead that was already there.

THE WEEK THAT DID IT

Williams graded +34.4 in the Bears' 30-24 win over the New England Patriots, against a defense that is among the toughest in the league. That same week, Purdy graded +7.3 in a 29-20 loss at Atlanta, in a game where the San Francisco 49ers gave the ball away four times and the tape had it almost even. That swing is why the order flipped.

THE REST OF THE LIST

Josh Allen is third at +25.6, Joe Burrow fourth at +25.0, Trevor Lawrence fifth at +23.7 and Drake Maye sixth at +23.5. Those last four are packed inside 2.1 points, so call it a four-way tie. Lamar Jackson (out with an ankle) and J.J. McCarthy (two games) are off the list until Jackson returns and McCarthy has a bigger sample.

Week 7 also gave us three huge single games: Burrow at +47.9 in the Cincinnati Bengals' 35-13 win, Maye at +44.2 in a loss at Chicago, and Matthew Stafford at +43.4, though his rests on only 23 dropbacks because the game got out of hand.

Full rankings for all 33 quarterbacks at datadisrespect.com.