Zero for 13: The Eagles Gained 172 Yards, Never Moved the Chains on Third Down, and Lost by Four

THE EAGLES COULD NOT MOVE THE CHAINS ONCE

Let me say this slowly. Philadelphia gained 172 net yards on 61 plays. That is 2.82 a snap. They went 0 for 13 on third down. Jalen Hurts finished 12 of 27 for 93 yards with a completion rate 18.5 points under what was expected from his throws. They took 4 sacks.

And they lost by four. The Rams ran 83 plays for 416 yards. Turn all of that into points the way the numbers normally pay out and it is a 15-point Rams win. Philadelphia walked out of that building with about 11 points of scoreboard it did not earn. Four sacks, no third-down conversions, and it was still a one-score game at the finish.

THE COLTS WON BY 17 AND WASHINGTON OUTGAINED THEM

Indianapolis 30, Washington 13 in London looks like a clean win. It is not. The Colts averaged 4.06 net yards a play; the Commanders averaged 4.95. Daniel Jones threw for 143 yards on 34 attempts, and the Colts' passing game was a minus 0.39 expected points per dropback.

So how does that win by 17? Washington, with Jayden Daniels out, Marcus Mariota gone after five dropbacks with a reported knee injury and rookie Athan Kaliakmanis playing the rest, went 2 for 16 on third down. Indy did not have to be good. It had to be standing there when Washington stalled. The tape says the Colts played a roughly 6-point game and got paid for 17, a gap of +10.5 points, the biggest of the week.

THE TEAMS THE SCOREBOARD UNDERSOLD

Baltimore averaged 6.23 yards a play to Tennessee's 4.75 and won by six. Lamar Jackson went 15 of 20 for 222 and two touchdowns at a completion rate 11.3 points above expectation, then left at halftime with a reported ankle injury. The Ravens went 2 for 11 on third down, which is how you turn a rout into a 24-18 game.

Chicago, with backup Tyson Bagent in for Caleb Williams, ran 90 plays for 495 yards. The Jets ran 32 for 157 and went 0 for 7 on third down. Carolina's Bryce Young posted a competitive-snap completion rate 17.4 over expected and T. McMillan caught 14 of 15 targets for 192. Denver lost to San Francisco by 10 in a game that was a dead heat on net EPA per play (49ers +0.037) with no turnovers and no sacks on either side. Add the Commanders, Rams, Cardinals and Patriots and that is seven teams who played better than their result.

THE QUARTERBACKS

C.J. Stroud was +15.1 over expected on completion rate, tops of anyone with 20-plus dropbacks, and the Texans averaged 7.49 yards a play, and they are 0-4. Houston lost 34-30 without turning the ball over once. That is a profile that does not stay 0-4 forever.

On the other side of the ledger: Justin Herbert's expected points per dropback was minus 0.81 once you take garbage time out, and only minus 0.23 with it in. Jared Goff threw for 412 yards and lost, and his completion rate on competitive snaps was 6.9 under expected. Patrick Mahomes went 15 of 31 for 225 and was 7.3 under expected. Brock Purdy's 19-of-29 line looks spotless, but he was 5.0 under what his throws should have produced. Sunday's quarterback lines were generous to all four.

THE RANKINGS, WITH THE USUAL ASTERISKS

Opponent-adjusted, garbage time stripped out, built on yards per play, EPA, pass EPA and explosive plays: San Francisco is first, Seattle second, the Rams third, Baltimore fourth and Chicago fifth. The bottom five, from the floor up: Arizona (32), the Chargers (31), Tennessee (30), Miami (29) and Tampa Bay (28).

Seven teams have no quarterback above 85 percent of their attempts, so Seattle, Chicago, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Washington, Atlanta and the Giants carry an asterisk. A rating built on two quarterbacks describes neither.

WEEK 5 IN ONE BREATH

Tampa Bay and Dallas play Thursday night on four days of rest each. Philadelphia plays Jacksonville in London at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Pittsburgh and Cleveland each get ten days before Sunday; their opponents get seven. Justin Jefferson, Nick Bosa, Aaron Donald, Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith were all on the official Out list this week, and the Wednesday reports will say who comes back. Atlanta at New Orleans is tonight and is not in any of these numbers.

Small samples, four games each. Treat every number here as a direction, not a verdict.