Five of the AP's Top Seven Lost on Saturday. The Numbers Say Four Were Coin Flips.

Georgia was a 19.5-point favorite on Saturday. Auburn won 27-24. Notre Dame lost at BYU, Indiana lost to Ohio State, Alabama got run out of Tennessee, and Texas lost at home to Florida. That's five of the AP's top seven teams down in one day.

Before you write the funeral, look at how they actually played.

WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY

Georgia and Auburn were even. Auburn had the better points per play, Georgia had the better success rate and 74 more yards, and Georgia turned it over three times to Auburn's zero. Efficiency says Auburn by about one. The final was three. Notre Dame at BYU was a dead heat on efficiency and BYU won by four. Indiana and Ohio State, numbers four and five in the poll, played to a draw and the Buckeyes won by four. Texas lost to Florida by three, and efficiency says Florida by about six, which is inside the noise of a single game.

Alabama is the exception. The Tide averaged minus 0.29 points per play, gave it away four times and got outgained 347 to 201. Tennessee won by 16, and the numbers say it could have been 21. That one was real.

THE LINE WAS THE BIGGEST MISS

The betting market expected far more than the play delivered. Georgia was minus 19.5 and Texas was minus 11.5. The play said Georgia's game was even and Texas's leaned toward Florida.

OUR TOP FIVE BARELY MOVED

Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami and Indiana are still our top five, the same five teams as last week. Georgia slides from first to third. All five also rank in the top seven in season efficiency. Losing a coin flip is not the same as getting worse.

THE POLL'S BLIND SPOT

Kentucky is 15th in the AP and 49th in our ranking. The Wildcats are 6-1, but two of those wins were by one point, and Saturday they beat Oklahoma while getting outgained 346 to 230. The adjusted rating alone, the best single number we have, has them 46th. Meanwhile Arizona is 5-1 and 20th for us with no poll ranking, and Nebraska is 5-2 and 17th, with both losses by three points to Indiana and Oregon. Nebraska's schedule has been soft, so call it untested rather than proven.

WHERE WE'RE SOFT

The adjusted rating probably doesn't include Saturday yet. Missouri's rating went up the week it lost 31-3 at Ole Miss. Liberty is 37th in our blend and 49th on the adjusted rating alone because a preseason win total props it up, and the Flames have no win over a team ranked in the top 100. Texas is sixth on the adjusted rating and 73rd in season efficiency. Both can't be right, and we aren't picking.

Seven weeks is a small sample, and this is a description of one Saturday.