From Average to Dead Last: What Happened to Justin Herbert When Nobody Is Pressuring Him

THE SHORT VERSION

Everyone's first guess is the offensive line. It is a fair guess. The Chargers' line really is bad. But the numbers say it is not the new problem. Herbert's pocket looks almost the same as it did last season. His results do not.

Through six games this year, Herbert is averaging -0.31 expected points added (EPA) per dropback, last among the 30 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. The league average is about +0.06. Last season he was at +0.06, which is about average.

THE LINE IS BAD, AND THAT IS NOT NEW

Los Angeles quarterbacks have gone down on 9.3 percent of dropbacks this year, the fourth-highest sack rate in the league. They have been hit on 19.2 percent, the third-highest. Last year those ranks were sixth and third. Herbert himself is sacked on 9.4 percent of dropbacks, against 5.9 percent for every other quarterback.

The run game tells the same story. The Chargers are 29th of 32 teams in EPA per rush. So the line is a real weakness in both phases.

But here is the key point. Last year Herbert was sacked on 8.7 percent of dropbacks and hit on 20.6 percent. That is about the same as now (this year: 9.4 percent sacked, 18.8 percent hit), and he finished the year about average. If the line were the thing that changed, the pressure numbers would be worse this year. They are not.

THE SACKS ARE NOT HIS FAULT

Charting tags sacks that the quarterback caused by holding the ball too long. Only 3 of Herbert's 17 sacks (18 percent) carry that tag. For the rest of the league it is 24 percent. His average time to throw is 2.81 seconds, and the slowest quarterbacks in the league are around 3.25. He is not sitting back there waiting. The line deserves the blame for most of the sacks.

WHERE THE DROP-OFF REALLY COMES FROM

We split every dropback into three groups: sacked, hit while throwing, and clean. Then we asked how much of the gap to the rest of the league comes from how often he is pressured, and how much from how he plays in each group.

The gap to the rest of the league is 0.37 EPA per dropback. About 0.07 of that (roughly a fifth) is the extra pressure. About 0.30 (roughly four fifths) is Herbert doing worse than the league in each group.

Compared with his own 2025, it is even clearer. His EPA per dropback fell by 0.37. Essentially none of that, less than 0.01, comes from more pressure. All of it comes from worse play within each type of dropback.

The biggest hole is the clean pocket. On dropbacks where nobody sacks or hits him, Herbert averaged +0.30 last year and -0.04 this year. The rest of the league averages about +0.22. Among the 31 quarterbacks with 80 or more clean dropbacks, he is 30th.

WHAT IS DIFFERENT WHEN HE THROWS

His completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is -6.9 this year. CPOE is how often a quarterback completes passes compared with what an average quarterback would complete on the same throws. Last year Herbert was +2.2. His completion rate has dropped from 60.5 percent to 53.0 percent.

The throws also look riskier. Charting marks 6.1 percent of his passes as interception-worthy, against 2.8 percent for everyone else. He has thrown 7 interceptions on 164 attempts (4.3 percent), more than double the league rate of about 2 percent.

His receivers have hurt him some. His passes have been dropped 5.5 percent of the time against 3.8 percent for the rest of the league. Keenan Allen, who was his most-targeted receiver last year with 110 targets, is not among his top targets this year. Quentin Johnston is at -22.8 CPOE on 18 targets. Ladd McConkey is the bright spot at +9.6.

His passes are also getting shorter. His average air yards are about the same as last year (7.7), but 22.6 percent of his throws now land at or behind the line of scrimmage, up from 17.5 percent. In Week 6 his average intended depth was only 6.1 yards.

THE NEW PLAY-CALLER

Mike McDaniel is the Chargers' new offensive coordinator this season, and the play-calling has changed in one big way. On first and second down in games that are still close, Los Angeles passed 60 percent of the time last year. This year it is 43 percent, the lowest rate of any team in the NFL. The league average is about 56 percent.

That would be fine if the runs were working. They are not. On those early downs, the Chargers' runs average -0.28 EPA per play, while their passes average -0.07. Last year the same numbers were -0.16 for runs and +0.09 for passes. So they are running more with the play that is working worse, and passing less with Herbert, who is not good right now either.

The whole offense is last in the league at -0.26 EPA per play, 32nd of 32 teams. Last year they finished 22nd, and through the first six games of last season they were 16th. We cannot say the new coordinator caused this. The line, the receivers, and Herbert all changed or struggled at the same time. But the early-down tilt toward the run is a clear flag, and it is the biggest change in how the team plays.

THE WEEK 6 TEST

If pressure were the whole story, a normal day for the line should have fixed things. It did not. In Week 6 at Kansas City, Herbert was hit on only 12.1 percent of his dropbacks (league: 15.2 percent) and sacked on 6.1 percent (league: 5.9 percent). Those counts leave out garbage time, when the game was already decided. That is close to a normal day for a line. His EPA per dropback was still -0.41.

His week-by-week EPA per dropback this season: Week 1, -0.04. Week 2, +0.13. Week 3, -0.27. Week 4, -0.72. Week 5, -0.51. Week 6, -0.41.

The injury reports show tackle Joe Alt and guard Kayode Awosika out in Week 6, and Alt was also out in Week 5. That is a real concern, but it does not explain Week 6, because the pressure was low.

WHAT ABOUT THE SCHEDULE

The schedule has been a mix. Arizona, Las Vegas, and Buffalo rank 30th, 27th, and 28th against the pass, and Seattle, Denver, and Kansas City rank 3rd, 6th, and 7th. These six defenses have allowed +0.12 EPA per dropback to every other quarterback. Herbert is at -0.31. Even against the softer defenses his numbers were not good.

HOW SURE ARE WE

Not very, and we want to be clear about that. This is six games and 181 dropbacks. A reasonable range for Herbert's true level this year, from the data alone, runs from about -0.56 to -0.05 EPA per dropback. Even the top of that range is below average. The drop from last year is large enough that it is unlikely to be pure noise, but it could shrink as the sample grows.

We also cannot split the blame between Herbert, the new mix of receivers, and the play-calling using this data. Pass-blocking win rates and route data would help, and we do not have them.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The Chargers' line is a real problem and it caps what this offense can do. But it is the same problem it was last year, when Herbert was an average quarterback. What changed is his play on clean dropbacks: fewer completions, more risky throws, shorter throws, and more drops from his receivers, all under a new coordinator who has turned the offense toward the run. The most likely explanation is a mix of all of those, not the line alone.

All numbers use 2026 regular-season games through Week 6, with garbage time removed. The 2025 regular season is used only as the comparison.