Every NFL Quarterback, Stack-Ranked: Last Game + 2026 Season Aggregate, Opponent-Adjusted
Week 7 final, including Monday Night Football. Adjusted for the defenses each quarterback faced. Updated Oct. 27, 2026.
Final Week 7 version, updated Oct. 27, 2026. Every Week 7 game is in, including Monday night's Dallas at Philadelphia (DAL 38, PHI 21). Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers and Washington were on bye, so Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert and Jayden Daniels still show Week 6 as their last game. Baker Mayfield's last graded game is Week 3 (he played Week 7 but had only 6 graded dropbacks, under the 8 needed). Jameis Winston was benched for J.J. McCarthy before Week 7, so his last game is Week 6.
TL;DR
- Caleb Williams takes first. Williams (+35.1, 4 games, 131 dropbacks) leads the season and is the only quarterback in S tier. Then Brock Purdy (+26.7), Josh Allen (+25.6), Joe Burrow (+25.0), Trevor Lawrence (+23.7) and Drake Maye (+23.5). Allen, Burrow, Lawrence and Maye are all within 2.1 points, so treat them as one group.
- Best Week 7: Joe Burrow (+47.9, CIN W 35-13), Drake Maye (+44.2, NE L 24-30), Matthew Stafford (+43.4, LAR W 35-21), Caleb Williams (+34.4, CHI W 30-24) and Malik Willis (+26.7, MIA W 28-25). Three quarterbacks reached S tier (35 or higher): Burrow, Maye and Stafford. Stafford's came on only 23 graded dropbacks.
- Worst Week 7: Bryce Young (-27.3, CAR L 13-43), Kirk Cousins (-27.1, LV L 21-35), C.J. Stroud (-11.6, HOU L 21-27), Tanner McKee (-10.8, PHI L 21-38) and Daniel Jones (-8.7, IND L 10-16). Young (13 graded dropbacks) and Cousins (18) are thin samples because both games turned into blowouts and the rest was garbage time.
- Won but graded badly: Aaron Rodgers (-2.4, PIT W 16-10) and Kyler Murray (-4.3, MIN W 16-10). Only two winners graded below zero.
- Lost but graded well: Drake Maye (+44.2, NE L 24-30), Tyler Shough (+17.7, NO L 10-16), Tyler Huntley (+17.1, BAL L 13-35) and Geno Smith (+15.4, NYJ L 25-28). Maye's +44.2 came in a 24-30 loss at Chicago against the toughest defense he could have drawn (CHI -13.0).
- Biggest movers up (rank after Week 6 to now, same method): Michael Penix Jr. (25th to 21st, -0.8), Matthew Stafford (12th to 8th, +14.4), Bo Nix (24th to 22nd, -2.4) and Dak Prescott (16th to 13th, +10.7).
- Biggest movers down: Patrick Mahomes (9th to 14th, +10.6), Kyler Murray (22nd to 25th, -4.8) and Kirk Cousins (13th to 16th, +3.7).
- Monday night: Dak Prescott graded +26.7 (unadjusted +23.0) in the 38-21 win at Philadelphia; Tanner McKee graded -10.8 against a soft Dallas defense (+12.3).
WHAT THE GRADE MEANS
Zero is league average. Every dropback outside garbage time is measured three ways: whether the play actually helped the team score, how accurate the throw was for its difficulty, and whether it kept the offense on schedule. Efficiency carries most of the weight, accuracy and consistency the rest. Scrambles and sacks count as dropbacks and are credited to the quarterback. Quarterbacks with few dropbacks are pulled toward average in proportion to how little they have thrown, so one good half does not make a number one. Exactly how it is built is ours.
The opponent adjustment. Before any grade is computed, each defense's effect is estimated with the quality of the quarterbacks it faced held constant, so a defense is not penalized for drawing weak quarterbacks, and small samples are pulled toward average. That effect is then taken out of every dropback a quarterback threw against it. A quarterback who faced tough defenses gains points; one who faced soft defenses loses them.
Tiers use the same scale every week: S is 35 and up, A is 15 to 34, B is 0 to 14, C is -1 to -15, D is below -15.
Exclusions and starter changes, applied before any grade:
- Quarterbacks ruled out for the season are removed from both tables.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL) is off both tables while he is out (ankle) and can be graded again once he returns. J.J. McCarthy (NYG) is off both tables because two games and 39 dropbacks is too small a sample. Their plays stay in the league average and the defense estimates, and prior ranks are renumbered without them.
- Injury-shortened games are dropped entirely: Sam Darnold (SEA, Week 1, 3 dropbacks) and Kyler Murray (MIN, Week 1, 7 dropbacks, left hurt). Their rankings rest on the full games they have: five for Darnold, four for Murray. No new injury exits surfaced in Week 7.
- A valid game needs 8 or more graded dropbacks. Baker Mayfield's Week 7 (6 graded dropbacks, 11 total, TB won 43-13) falls under that line; it was a blowout, not an injury exit.
- Starter changes: J.J. McCarthy replaced Jameis Winston as the Giants' starter (a benching, not an injury); Winston stays in the season ranking on his five games. Tanner McKee (PHI) and Tyler Huntley (BAL) stay ranked because they started again. Jalon Daniels (TB) is off both tables because Baker Mayfield is back and started.
- Backups with mop-up snaps are not ranked: Kenny Pickett (CAR, 5 dropbacks), Xavier Hutchinson (HOU, 1), Cooper Rush (ATL), Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent (CHI), Marcus Mariota (WSH), Carson Wentz (MIN) and Drew Lock (SEA).
RANKING 1: LAST GAME PLAYED (OPPONENT-ADJUSTED)
Each quarterback's last valid game; the week is shown. Grade is opponent-adjusted; the unadjusted grade is beside it. Trend compares the adjusted grade to his previous valid game; an arrow means a move of more than 3 points, and → means flat. The number beside each opponent is that defense's effect in points per 100 dropbacks (negative = tougher than average, positive = softer). "Intl" is an overseas or neutral site.
| 1 | Joe Burrow |  CIN | S | +47.9 | +50.6 | ▲ | 7 | 29 |  BAL (+1.0), away | Jesse Minter | W 35-13 | 4-2 |
| 2 | Drake Maye |  NE | S | +44.2 | +38.3 | ▲ | 7 | 31 |  CHI (-13.0), away | Ben Johnson | L 24-30 | 4-3 |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford |  LAR | S | +43.4 | +51.7 | ▲ | 7 | 23 |  LV (+10.7), away | Klint Kubiak | W 35-21 | 3-4 |
| 4 | Caleb Williams | CHI | A | +34.4 | +31.6 | → | 7 | 37 | NE (-5.7), home | Mike Vrabel | W 30-24 | 5-2 |
| 5 | Malik Willis |  MIA | A | +26.7 | +25.9 | ▲ | 7 | 28 |  NYJ (+4.0), away | Aaron Glenn | W 28-25 | 1-5 |
| 6 | Dak Prescott |  DAL | A | +26.7 | +23.0 | ▲ | 7 | 28 |  PHI (+2.7), away | Nick Sirianni | W 38-21 | 3-4 |
| 7 | Sam Darnold |  SEA | A | +26.5 | +29.0 | ▲ | 7 | 29 |  KC (+5.3), home | Andy Reid | W 20-3 | 4-3 |
| 8 | Michael Penix Jr. |  ATL | A | +18.5 | +21.4 | ▲ | 7 | 34 |  SF (-0.2), home | Kyle Shanahan | W 29-20 | 3-4 |
| 9 | Tyler Shough |  NO | A | +17.7 | +20.7 | ▲ | 7 | 41 |  PIT (+4.5), Intl | Mike McCarthy | L 10-16 | 2-5 |
| 10 | Tyler Huntley | BAL | A | +17.1 | +15.2 | ▲ | 7 | 36 | CIN (-2.2), home | Zac Taylor | L 13-35 | 4-3 |
| 11 | Jared Goff |  DET | A | +16.3 | +14.0 | ▲ | 7 | 33 |  GB (-6.3), home | Matt LaFleur | W 20-17 | 4-2 |
| 12 | Geno Smith | NYJ | A | +15.4 | +30.3 | ▼ | 7 | 30 | MIA (+14.8), home | Jeff Hafley | L 25-28 | 2-5 |
| 13 | Josh Allen |  BUF | A | +15.3 | +24.1 | ▼ | 6 | 34 | LV (+10.7), away | Klint Kubiak | W 33-30 | 5-1 |
| 14 | Bo Nix |  DEN | B | +13.1 | +18.4 | ▲ | 7 | 25 |  ARI (+12.8), away | Jonathan Gannon | W 30-16 | 5-2 |
| 15 | Trevor Lawrence |  JAX | B | +12.4 | +9.0 | → | 6 | 43 |  HOU (-0.7), Intl | DeMeco Ryans | L 31-34 | 4-2 |
| 16 | Jayden Daniels |  WSH | B | +11.7 | +14.6 | ▼ | 6 | 38 | SF (-0.2), away | Kyle Shanahan | L 17-23 | 1-4-1 |
| 17 | Brock Purdy | SF | B | +7.3 | +4.9 | ▼ | 7 | 35 | ATL (-8.9), away | Raheem Morris | L 20-29 | 6-1 |
| 18 | Cam Ward |  TEN | B | +6.5 | +2.4 | ▲ | 7 | 33 |  CLE (-3.6), home | Todd Monken | L 24-27 | 1-6 |
| 19 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | B | +4.2 | +15.2 | ▲ | 7 | 38 | TEN (+9.4), away | Robert Saleh | W 27-24 | 5-2 |
| 20 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | B | +3.0 | -6.5 | ▼ | 7 | 32 | SEA (-15.6), away | Mike Macdonald | L 3-20 | 5-1 |
| 21 | Jordan Love | GB | B | +0.4 | +6.2 | ▲ | 7 | 46 | DET (+6.2), away | Dan Campbell | L 17-20 | 4-3 |
| 22 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | C | -1.1 | -11.6 | ▼ | 7 | 35 | DEN (-12.2), home | Sean Payton | L 16-30 | 2-5 |
| 23 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | C | -2.4 | +2.3 | → | 7 | 34 | NO (+3.3), Intl | Kellen Moore | W 16-10 | 5-2 |
| 24 | Kyler Murray |  MIN | C | -4.3 | -4.8 | ▼ | 7 | 29 |  IND (+5.6), home | Shane Steichen | W 16-10 | 6-0 |
| 25 | Daniel Jones | IND | C | -8.7 | -22.8 | ▲ | 7 | 27 | MIN (-15.5), away | Kevin O'Connell | L 10-16 | 2-5 |
| 26 | Tanner McKee | PHI | C | -10.8 | -2.1 | → | 7 | 31 | DAL (+12.3), home | Brian Schottenheimer | L 21-38 | 2-5 |
| 27 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | C | -11.6 | -13.7 | ▼ | 7 | 29 |  NYG (-0.1), home | John Harbaugh | L 21-27 | 2-5 |
| 28 | Baker Mayfield |  TB | D | -16.2 | -31.3 | ▼ | 3 | 42 | MIN (-15.5), home | Kevin O'Connell | L 16-23 | 2-5 |
| 29 | Jameis Winston | NYG | D | -25.9 | -21.4 | ▼ | 6 | 26 | NO (+3.3), home | Kellen Moore | L 27-34 | 4-2-1 |
| 30 | Kirk Cousins | LV | D | -27.1 | -35.1 | ▼ | 7 | 18 | LAR (-5.4), home | Sean McVay | L 21-35 | 3-4 |
| 31 | Bryce Young |  CAR | D | -27.3 | -31.5 | ▼ | 7 | 13 | TB (-11.4), home | Todd Bowles | L 13-43 | 3-3 |
| 32 | Justin Herbert |  LAC | D | -34.5 | -32.0 | ▼ | 6 | 33 | KC (+5.3), away | Andy Reid | L 6-22 | 0-6 |
Click a column to sort. Click again to reverse it, and once more to go back to the original order.
RANKING 2: 2026 SEASON AGGREGATE (OPPONENT-ADJUSTED)
All graded dropbacks pooled across every valid game, adjusted for the defenses faced, same grade, in strict grade order. Opponent adjustment is the number of grade points the adjustment added (positive = he faced tougher defenses) or removed (negative = softer). Prior rank is where he ranked after Week 6, recomputed with this week's defense estimates, so it can differ slightly from last week's published order. Avg. opponent effect is the average defense he faced, in points per 100 dropbacks (negative = tougher).
| 1 | Caleb Williams | CHI | S | +35.1 | +29.2 | +5.9 | 1 | 4 | 131 | CAR, MIN, ATL, NE | -6.3 | 5-2 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | SF | A | +26.7 | +24.1 | +2.6 | 2 | 7 | 208 | LAR, MIA, ARI, DEN, SEA, WSH, ATL | -3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | BUF | A | +25.6 | +26.1 | -0.5 | 3 | 6 | 194 | HOU, DET, LAC, NE, LAR, LV | +0.3 | 5-1 |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | A | +25.0 | +26.4 | -1.4 | 6 | 6 | 221 | TB, HOU, PIT, JAX, MIA, BAL | -0.3 | 4-2 |
| 5 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | A | +23.7 | +18.9 | +4.8 | 4 | 6 | 191 | CLE, DEN, NE, CIN, PHI, HOU | -3.0 | 4-2 |
| 6 | Drake Maye | NE | A | +23.5 | +21.8 | +1.7 | 7 | 7 | 216 | SEA, PIT, JAX, BUF, LV, NYJ, CHI | -2.0 | 4-3 |
| 7 | Bryce Young | CAR | A | +15.7 | +13.0 | +2.7 | 5 | 6 | 208 | CHI, ATL, CLE, DET, PHI, TB | -3.1 | 3-3 |
| 8 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | B | +14.4 | +13.7 | +0.8 | 12 | 7 | 264 | SF, NYG, DEN, PHI, BUF, ARI, LV | +1.9 | 3-4 |
| 9 | Jayden Daniels | WSH | B | +12.7 | +13.8 | -1.1 | 10 | 4 | 136 | PHI, DAL, NYG, SF | +2.7 | 1-4-1 |
| 10 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | B | +12.4 | +15.3 | -2.8 | 8 | 7 | 240 | BUF, CIN, IND, DAL, TEN, JAX, NYG | +3.6 | 2-5 |
| 11 | Jared Goff | DET | B | +12.1 | +13.6 | -1.5 | 11 | 6 | 206 | NO, BUF, NYJ, CAR, ARI, GB | +3.8 | 4-2 |
| 12 | Tyler Huntley | BAL | B | +12.1 | +8.7 | +3.4 | 14 | 3 | 111 | ATL, CLE, CIN | -4.9 | 4-3 |
| 13 | Dak Prescott | DAL | B | +10.7 | +9.4 | +1.3 | 16 | 7 | 247 | NYG, WSH, BAL, HOU, TB, GB, PHI | -1.4 | 3-4 |
| 14 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | B | +10.6 | +11.3 | -0.7 | 9 | 6 | 187 | DEN, IND, MIA, LV, LAC, SEA | +0.5 | 5-1 |
| 15 | Geno Smith | NYJ | B | +8.0 | +10.5 | -2.5 | 15 | 7 | 223 | TEN, GB, DET, CHI, CLE, NE, MIA | +0.6 | 2-5 |
| 16 | Kirk Cousins | LV | B | +3.7 | +6.6 | -2.9 | 13 | 7 | 217 | MIA, LAC, NO, KC, NE, BUF, LAR | +2.8 | 3-4 |
| 17 | Jordan Love | GB | B | +3.6 | +1.8 | +1.8 | 17 | 7 | 235 | MIN, NYJ, ATL, TB, CHI, DAL, DET | -2.6 | 4-3 |
| 18 | Sam Darnold | SEA | B | +3.0 | +2.7 | +0.3 | 20 | 5 | 185 | WSH, LAC, SF, DEN, KC | -1.6 | 4-3 |
| 19 | Tyler Shough | NO | B | +2.1 | +4.1 | -2.0 | 19 | 7 | 260 | DET, BAL, LV, ATL, MIN, NYG, PIT | +1.7 | 2-5 |
| 20 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | B | +0.8 | -2.7 | +3.5 | 18 | 7 | 251 | LAC, SEA, SF, NYG, DET, LAR, DEN | -4.3 | 2-5 |
| 21 | Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | C | -0.8 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 25 | 5 | 133 | GB, NO, BAL, CHI, SF | -2.4 | 3-4 |
| 22 | Bo Nix | DEN | C | -2.4 | -3.9 | +1.6 | 24 | 7 | 212 | KC, JAX, LAR, SF, LAC, SEA, ARI | -2.3 | 5-2 |
| 23 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | C | -3.9 | -6.8 | +2.9 | 21 | 7 | 272 | ATL, NE, CIN, CLE, IND, TB, NO | -4.0 | 5-2 |
| 24 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | C | -4.2 | -2.5 | -1.8 | 23 | 7 | 236 | JAX, TB, CAR, PIT, NYJ, BAL, TEN | +2.0 | 5-2 |
| 25 | Kyler Murray | MIN | C | -4.8 | +0.0 | -4.8 | 22 | 4 | 142 | TB, MIA, NO, IND | +3.8 | 6-0 |
| 26 | Baker Mayfield | TB | C | -8.2 | -16.3 | +8.2 | 26 | 3 | 117 | CIN, CLE, MIN | -7.4 | 2-5 |
| 27 | Malik Willis | MIA | C | -9.9 | -9.6 | -0.3 | 30 | 6 | 148 | LV, SF, KC, MIN, CIN, NYJ | +1.5 | 1-5 |
| 28 | Tanner McKee | PHI | C | -11.9 | -8.9 | -3.0 | 27 | 2 | 77 | CAR, DAL | +7.9 | 2-5 |
| 29 | Cam Ward | TEN | C | -14.7 | -16.4 | +1.6 | 31 | 7 | 184 | NYJ, PHI, NYG, BAL, HOU, IND, CLE | +0.9 | 1-6 |
| 30 | Daniel Jones | IND | D | -16.3 | -13.8 | -2.5 | 28 | 7 | 243 | BAL, KC, HOU, WSH, PIT, TEN, MIN | +2.6 | 2-5 |
| 31 | Jameis Winston | NYG | D | -18.6 | -12.2 | -6.4 | 29 | 5 | 158 | LAR, TEN, ARI, WSH, NO | +6.6 | 4-2-1 |
| 32 | Justin Herbert | LAC | D | -28.2 | -28.1 | -0.0 | 32 | 6 | 181 | ARI, LV, BUF, SEA, DEN, KC | +1.3 | 0-6 |
Click a column to sort. Click again to reverse it, and once more to go back to the original order.
WHAT THE ADJUSTMENT CHANGED
- Grade rose most (faced tougher defenses): Baker Mayfield (+8.2), Caleb Williams (+5.9), Trevor Lawrence (+4.8), Jacoby Brissett (+3.5) and Tyler Huntley (+3.4).
- Grade fell most (faced softer defenses): Jameis Winston (-6.4), Kyler Murray (-4.8), Tanner McKee (-3.0), Kirk Cousins (-2.9) and C.J. Stroud (-2.8).
- Treat these groups as ties: Allen (+25.6), Burrow (+25.0), Lawrence (+23.7) and Maye (+23.5) are within 2.1 points; Stafford (+14.4) is 1.3 below Young (+15.7); Daniels (+12.7), Stroud (+12.4), Goff (+12.1) and Huntley (+12.1) are within 0.6 of each other. The tables are in strict grade order; the small-sample notes are here, not in the order.
BETTER THAN THEY LOOKED, WORSE THAN THEY LOOKED
Passer ratings here are computed from the play-by-play (all attempts; sacks, scrambles and two-point tries excluded).
- Worse than the box score (Week 7): C.J. Stroud (-11.6 grade, 99.3 rating), Kirk Cousins (-27.1, 94.4, on only 18 graded dropbacks), Geno Smith (+15.4 grade against a 125.3 rating; unadjusted he was +30.3, and Miami's defense is the softest in the league at MIA +14.8) and Jared Goff (+16.3, 119.7).
- Better than the box score (Week 7): Brock Purdy (+7.3 grade, 77.7 rating, against a tough Atlanta defense, ATL -8.9), Patrick Mahomes (+3.0, 58.3 rating, against Seattle, the toughest defense in the league at SEA -15.6) and Cam Ward (+6.5, 66.7).
- Season level, looks better than he is: Michael Penix Jr. (-0.8 grade, 109.8 rating), Jared Goff (+12.1, 112.5) and Geno Smith (+8.0, 105.7).
- Season level, looks worse than he is: Bryce Young (+15.7, 93.3), Drake Maye (+23.5, 96.8), Sam Darnold (+3.0, 81.4) and Caleb Williams (+35.1, 105.6).
- Scoreboard vs. grade, season level: Kyler Murray (-4.8) is on a 6-0 Minnesota team, Brock Purdy (+26.7) on a 6-1 San Francisco team, and C.J. Stroud (+12.4) on a 2-5 Houston team.
- Winless: the Chargers (Herbert -28.2, 0-6).
OPPONENT DEFENSE EFFECTS (USED IN THE ADJUSTMENT, WEEKS 1-7)
Each defense's estimated effect on a quarterback's production per dropback, in points per 100 dropbacks, with quarterback quality held constant. Negative = tougher than average (the quarterback's numbers are raised), positive = softer (lowered).
- Toughest: SEA -15.6, MIN -15.5, CHI -13.0, DEN -12.2, TB -11.4, ATL -8.9, GB -6.3, NE -5.7.
- Middle: LAR -5.4, JAX -5.3, LAC -4.7, CLE -3.6, CIN -2.2, HOU -0.7, SF -0.2, NYG -0.1, BAL +1.0, PHI +2.7, NO +3.3, NYJ +4.0, PIT +4.5, CAR +4.9, KC +5.3, IND +5.6.
- Softest: MIA +14.8, ARI +12.8, DAL +12.3, LV +10.7, TEN +9.4, WSH +7.0, BUF +6.5, DET +6.2.
Each defense has only about six or seven games behind its number, and the estimates are pulled toward zero, so treat small differences as noise. Head coaches faced are in the last-game table; coordinators aren't broken out. International games: SF-LAR (Melbourne, Week 1), BAL-DAL (Rio, Week 3), IND-WSH (London, Week 4), PHI-JAX (London, Week 5), HOU-JAX (London, Week 6), PIT-NO (neutral site, Week 7). Home/away/overseas is shown in the last-game table and is not part of the grade.
CHARTED LAYER (DIAGNOSTIC ONLY, NOT IN ANY GRADE)
Charting covers every dropback in Weeks 1-6 and 93.2% of Week 7's. Nothing in this section changes a grade.
- Receiver drops (share of charted attempts, 100+ attempts): Jordan Love 7.4% (completion rate 59.8% raw, 68.9% with drops added back and throwaways removed), Dak Prescott 6.9% (66.3% and 75.6%), Trevor Lawrence 6.0% (65.6% and 74.0%) and Geno Smith 5.8% (70.4% and 78.9%). Lowest: Malik Willis 1.3% and C.J. Stroud 1.6%.
- Sack blame (QB-fault share of charted sacks): Aaron Rodgers 9 of 22, Sam Darnold 8 of 14, Jameis Winston 6 of 15, Jordan Love 6 of 14. Geno Smith (21 sacks), Bryce Young (17) and Caleb Williams (12) have zero QB-fault sacks, so their sacks are on the line or the scheme.
- Turnover luck: interceptions split into decision-worthy (a real mistake) and fluke (tipped, deflected or a freak bounce). Splits for QBs with 3 or more: Drake Maye 7 decision-worthy / 1 fluke of 8; Justin Herbert 7 / 1 of 8; Sam Darnold 7 / 1 of 8; Daniel Jones 7 / 0 of 7; Matthew Stafford 6 / 1 of 7; Tyler Shough 6 / 0 of 6; Jacoby Brissett 4 / 2 of 6; Jordan Love 5 / 0 of 5; Jameis Winston 5 / 0 of 5; Kirk Cousins 5 / 0 of 5; Cam Ward 3 / 2 of 5; Dak Prescott 3 / 2 of 5; Aaron Rodgers 1 / 4 of 5; Brock Purdy 4 / 0 of 4; Josh Allen 4 / 0 of 4; Bryce Young 3 / 1 of 4; Patrick Mahomes 3 / 1 of 4; Trevor Lawrence 3 / 1 of 4; Malik Willis 2 / 2 of 4; Bo Nix 3 / 0 of 3; Deshaun Watson 3 / 0 of 3; Joe Burrow 3 / 0 of 3.
- Fumbles are context, not skill: which team recovers a fumble is close to a coin flip, so recovery luck, not decision-making, explains most of the gap between "fumbled" and "lost." Drake Maye fumbled 8 and lost 4, Justin Herbert fumbled 8 and lost 4, Deshaun Watson fumbled 7 and lost 3, Jordan Love fumbled 6 and lost 1.
- Player tracking (season to date, 100+ attempts): slowest time to throw Caleb Williams 3.22 seconds, Malik Willis 3.13 and Drake Maye 3.11; quickest Michael Penix 2.53, Jordan Love 2.60 and Jacoby Brissett 2.63. Deepest intended air yards: Malik Willis 9.9, C.J. Stroud 9.6 and Drake Maye 9.5; shortest Tyler Huntley 6.1, Patrick Mahomes 6.2 and Caleb Williams 6.2. Most throws into tight windows: Jacoby Brissett 24.5%, Dak Prescott 21.2% and Malik Willis 21.2%; fewest Patrick Mahomes 6.8%, Kyler Murray 8.0% and Cam Ward 9.1%.
INJURY AND STARTER NOTES (OFFICIAL WEEK 7 REPORT)
- Lamar Jackson (BAL, ankle): Out and not ranked while out; Tyler Huntley started and lost 13-35 to Cincinnati (+17.1, a good game).
- Baker Mayfield (TB, thumb): Questionable after a full practice; played.
- Dillon Gabriel (CLE) was Out (back); Deshaun Watson started.
- Drew Lock (SEA, elbow) was Questionable; Sam Darnold started and played well.
- Carson Beck (ARI, back) was Questionable; Jacoby Brissett started.
- Bryce Young, Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, Malik Willis and Drake Maye had no designation.
- Tanner McKee (PHI) started again.
- The Giants made a starter change to J.J. McCarthy before Week 7 (a coaching decision, not an injury); he is not ranked because of the small sample.
- Week 8 injury reports aren't out yet.
THE HONEST LIMITS OF THIS RANKING
- Seven games at most per QB, fewer for many. Pulling small samples toward average softens them; it does not erase them. McKee (2 games), Huntley and Mayfield (3 games) rest on very little.
- The opponent adjustment rests on about six or seven games per defense, so a defense's effect carries real error. It moves grades by up to about 8 points here; the adjusted order is a better read than the unadjusted one, not a precise one. The defense estimates were refit on all seven weeks, so Week 6 grades and prior ranks quoted here are recomputed and will not exactly match last week's page.
- The grade counts dropbacks only (passes, sacks and scrambles). Designed quarterback runs are not in it, so it understates quarterbacks who add value with their legs, such as Josh Allen.
- Garbage time is a win-probability cutoff, so it will miscall a play or two. Home/away/overseas context and head coaches are directional flags only. Injury statuses move fast.