Ole Miss Lost by 24 and Dropped Five Spots. The Numbers Say They're the 30th-Best Team in the Country.
The AP has Ole Miss ninth. Our numbers have them 30th. That is not a rounding error, that is a reputation doing the job a defense should be doing.
A QUICK WARNING ABOUT THE DATA
Quick housekeeping, because it matters this week. The opponent-adjusted rating, which does most of the work in this ranking, is only current through Week 4. Week 5 shows up here through play-by-play efficiency alone. So if a team looks too high after a bad Saturday, that is why, and we'll name them.
THE OLE MISS GAP
Now Ole Miss. They were on a bye, so their numbers are clean. Last time out they lost 52-28 at Florida, a 24-point loss, and the poll punished them by moving them from fourth to ninth. Five spots. The offense really is good, 12th nationally. The defense is 80th, and it is giving up +0.22 points per play, which is one of the 15 worst marks in FBS. They did beat LSU, and that win is real. It's why they're 30th and not 60th. It is not why they're ninth.
WHAT THE RANKING CAN'T SEE YET
Here's the twist. Florida, the team that beat them, sits eighth in the latest AP poll, which came out before Saturday. Then Florida went to Missouri and lost 45-17. Missouri averaged +0.42 points per play to Florida's +0.02. Zero turnovers on either side. That's a beating, not luck. Penn State got hammered 34-13 by Northwestern. Virginia lost 38-7 to Florida State. None of that is in the adjusted rating yet, so those three are ranked a game too high right now. Read their numbers as ceilings.
THE TOP OF THE BOARD
Meanwhile the top of the board barely flinched. Georgia is back at number one, Ohio State is second after handling Iowa, then Notre Dame, Indiana and Miami. Texas is number one in the AP and eighth for us, but that's an order disagreement, not a scandal. They beat the second-best team by a point and the 13th-best by three.
WHEN THE SCOREBOARD LIES
Best case of the scoreboard lying: Colorado lost 29-7 to Texas Tech. Colorado had the better success rate, 40 percent to 30, and out-gained Tech 375 to 315. They also handed the ball over four times. Tech didn't do it once. That's a game Colorado lost on giveaways, not on play quality.
UNDEFEATED, UNTESTED
Nebraska is 5-0, unranked, and 17th for us. Underrated by the poll, sure. But their best win is over a team we have 59th. Untested is the word.
Fifteen teams are still undefeated, down from 21. James Madison, Duke and North Dakota State are the ones the numbers say are fine, not great.
THE FINE PRINT
Five weeks in, this is still a small sample. We'll update when the adjusted rating catches up.