The Scoreboard Missed by 12 Points in Seattle and 11 in Jacksonville: Week 5 Technical Report

Technical report. NFL Week 5, Thursday October 8 through Monday Night October 12, 2026 (all 15 games). 2026 regular season only, garbage time removed.

Bottom line

Eight teams were flattered by their result: Seahawks, Eagles, Lions, Patriots, Bills, Steelers, Ravens, Vikings. Eight played better than the result shows: 49ers, Jaguars, Cardinals, Raiders, Rams, Colts, Falcons, Saints. The widest gap on the board is Seattle's 29-32 home loss to San Francisco: the plays imply a Seattle loss of about 16 on competitive snaps (14.5 on all snaps), against a real margin of 3. Seattle gave the ball away 4 times, took 5 sacks, converted 3 of 12 third downs and posted a 30.0 percent success rate. Philadelphia is next: a 232-yard offense at 3.93 net yards a play lost by only 2 to a Jacksonville team that gained 408. San Francisco is 5-0 and ranks #1 on the opponent-adjusted composite (+1.84, Seattle second at +1.31). Monday night's Bills 37, Rams 34 overtime game was close on the plays too (Buffalo's average gap is +4.0 points), and Buffalo sits 4th and Los Angeles 6th on the composite despite a 2-3 record. Minnesota is 5-0 and ranks 14th: the second-best opponent-adjusted defense and the 30th-ranked offense by adjusted EPA per play. Biggest risers vs. last week's ranking: Buccaneers +7 (to 20th), Packers +7 (to 9th), Texans +6, Jaguars, Bills and Patriots +4. Biggest fallers: Raiders -10 (to 21st), Bears -5, Eagles -5, Saints -4.

Data layers and availability

Data layers used. (1) Play-by-play, 2026 regular season Weeks 1-5: all 15 Week 5 games are present with full play rows, including Monday night's Bills at Rams (199 play rows). Garbage time (plays after the game is effectively decided) is removed from every rate stat unless labeled 'all plays'. (2) Schedule results, rest days and site, including the Week 5 London game and the Week 6 London game. (3) Player-tracking passing data, Week 5 loaded for 31 passers. (4) Charting: Weeks 1-5 are charted for all 32 teams, including all 15 Week 5 games (drops, QB-fault sacks, throwaways, blitzers, pass rushers), so charted figures here are season-to-date through Monday night. (5) Weekly pressure stats: Weeks 1-4 for all 32 teams; Week 5 contains only the two Thursday teams, so this is a Weeks 1-4 pressure cross-check plus Thursday. (6) Official injury report, Week 5 final designations (Out/Doubtful), plus injury notes written into the play-by-play text (a player listed as injured and not later listed as returned). Week 6 injury reports publish Wednesday, so the Week 6 section uses the Week 5 report. A search for post-game injury news returned only pre-game 2026 team pages and no post-game confirmations, so no post-game injury is asserted beyond the official report and the play-by-play itself.

Method

How the gap works. Every team's net EPA (expected points added) in a game is converted to the point margin it normally produces, using this season's Weeks 1-5 relationship between net EPA and final margin across all 158 team-games. The gap is actual margin minus implied margin. Positive means the result flattered the team; negative means the team played better than the result shows. It is computed twice, once on competitive plays only and once on all plays, and a team is flagged only when both agree in sign and both exceed 2 points. A play counts only if it is a real pass or run snap (penalty-nullified plays, kneels and spikes are excluded). Plays, net yards, yards per play, third-down conversions, giveaways and sacks count every real snap in the game, overtime included; EPA, success rate, CPOE (completion percentage over expected) and explosive rate are per scrimmage play on competitive snaps. Explosive plays are passes of 20+ yards and runs of 10+ yards. The ranking composite combines net yards-per-play differential, net EPA per play, pass EPA and explosive-play rate, each adjusted for opponent on competitive plays, Weeks 1-5, home field only where the site was not neutral, then standardized (0 = league average). One game per team is a small sample: treat single-game gaps as direction, not precision.

1. Scoreboard vs. play-by-play

• Seahawks+12.1
• Eagles+10.9
• Lions+9.8
• Patriots+9.7
• Dolphins+6.5
• Cowboys+4.9
• Bills+4.0
• Steelers+3.9
• Ravens+3.7
• Giants+3.6
• Vikings+3.4
• Browns+1.3
• Chargers+1.2
• Texans+1.1
• Packers+1.1
• Bears-1.1
• Titans-1.1
• Broncos-1.2
• Jets-1.3
• Saints-3.4
• Commanders-3.6
• Falcons-3.7
• Colts-3.9
• Rams-4.0
• Buccaneers-4.9
• Bengals-6.5
• Raiders-9.7
• Cardinals-9.8
• Jaguars-10.9
• 49ers-12.1

-130+13

Average gap: actual margin minus EPA-implied margin (points). Left of zero (green): played better than the result shows. Right of zero (red): result flattered the team. Gray: views disagree/noise.

The same data in table form:

2. Game by game

Buccaneers at Cowboys (Thursday): Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16

Verdict: THURSDAY: split verdict

Tampa Bay won 24-16 at Dallas with Jalon Daniels at quarterback in place of Baker Mayfield (Out): 19 of 25 for 189 yards and a TD, no interceptions, competitive CPOE +1.0. Tampa Bay gained 421 yards on 63 plays (6.68 a play) with no giveaways; Dallas gained 366 yards on 56 (6.54) and gave it away twice. Bucky Irving ran 21 times for 165 yards and a TD. Dak Prescott threw for 316 yards but was 24 of 43 with 2 INTs and a competitive CPOE of -14.6; charting logged 6 receiver drops and 11 contested-ball targets against Dallas's passing game, and George Pickens caught 9 for 130 yards and a TD. The two views disagree on size (TB -7.9 competitive / -1.8 all plays), so no flag: Tampa Bay was the better team on the night, by less than the competitive-snap view claims.

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield (QB, Out); Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, Out); SirVocea Dennis (LB, Out); Benjamin Morrison (CB, Out). Cowboys: Cobie Durant (CB, Out); DeMarvion Overshown (LB, Out); Drew Shelton (T, Out). No in-game injuries are listed in the play-by-play text.

Eagles at Jaguars (Sunday): Eagles 17, Jaguars 19

Verdict: FLATTERED: Eagles / UNDERSTATED: Jaguars

Played in London at 9:30 a.m. ET on a neutral site. Jacksonville outgained Philadelphia 408 yards to 232 (6.00 net yards a play to 3.93), ran 68 snaps to 59, and still needed a 19-17 finish. The Eagles' offense produced 1.7 percent explosive plays and a 32.2 percent success rate; Jalen Hurts was 21 of 40 for 220 yards with a CPOE of -11.1. Trevor Lawrence was 24 of 39 for 331 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT (CPOE -3.3); Parker Washington caught 6 for 124 yards and 2 TDs. Both teams were poor on third down (5/16 for Jacksonville, 6/15 for Philadelphia). The plays imply a Jacksonville win of about 12 to 13, not 2. Gap: Eagles +11.3 / +10.4, Jaguars -11.3 / -10.4 (competitive / all plays).

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Eagles: Saquon Barkley (RB, Out); Marcus Epps (S, Out); Marquise Brown (WR, Out); DeVonta Smith (WR, Out); Drew Kendall (C, Out). Jaguars: Eric Murray (S, Doubtful); Jaylon Jones (CB, Out). Left a play with an injury listed in the play-by-play text (final status not in the data): Jaguars: A.Harrison; Eagles: J.Hunt.

Bears at Packers (Sunday): Bears 7, Packers 31

Verdict: NO MIRAGE on direction: Packers dominated; the two views disagree on size

Green Bay averaged 7.45 net yards a play to Chicago's 3.62; Chicago gave it away 5 times and took 4 sacks, and went 4 of 14 on third down. Jordan Love was 25 of 32 for 367 yards and 2 TDs (competitive CPOE +13.7, tracking CPOE +11.6). Chicago used two quarterbacks: Tyson Bagent (12 of 21, 87 yards, 2 INTs) and Case Keenum (11 of 19, 108 yards, 1 INT). Christian Watson caught 6 for 143 yards and 2 TDs and Matthew Golden 6 for 123. 47 of the game's 126 plays came in garbage time, so the competitive-snap view says Green Bay's 24-point win was about 7 points more than the plays support while the all-play view says it was about 5 less; with the views split there is no luck flag, but both agree Green Bay was far better.

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Bears: Kyle Monangai (RB, Out); Keyshaun Elliott (LB, Out). Packers: Aaron Banks (G, Doubtful); Chris Brooks (RB, Out); Jacob Monk (C, Doubtful); Savion Williams (WR, Out). Left a play with an injury listed in the play-by-play text (final status not in the data): Packers: J.Hargrave.

Bengals at Dolphins (Sunday): Bengals 31, Dolphins 24

Verdict: SPLIT VERDICT: Bengals outplayed Miami on competitive snaps; the all-play view says closer

Cincinnati won 31-24 on a 62.3 percent success rate, 9 of 13 on third down and +0.237 EPA a play against Miami's -0.256. Joe Burrow was 23 of 32 for only 190 yards but threw 4 TDs and no interceptions with a competitive CPOE of +12.6. Miami gave it away 3 times and took 3 sacks; Malik Willis posted a competitive CPOE of -14.2 and 2 INTs, though the Dolphins lived on explosive plays (20.0 percent of competitive snaps, Cincinnati 5.7). 32 of the game's 125 snaps came in garbage time. Gap: Bengals -11.7 / -1.2, Dolphins +11.7 / +1.2 (competitive / all plays). Both views point to Cincinnati but only the competitive-snap view makes it large.

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Bengals: Kyle Dugger (S, Out). Dolphins: Reese Taylor (CB, Out); Rob Beal Jr. (DE, Out); Justin Joly (TE, Out); Caleb Douglas (WR, Out). No in-game injuries are listed in the play-by-play text.

Raiders at Patriots (Sunday): Raiders 17, Patriots 45

Verdict: FLATTERED: Patriots (still dominant) / UNDERSTATED: Raiders

New England won 45-17 on 8.57 net yards a play and 540 total yards. Drake Maye was 26 of 34 for 374 yards and 4 TDs with no interceptions; his competitive CPOE of +22.2 (tracking CPOE +17.5) was the highest of any quarterback this week and his EPA per dropback on competitive snaps was +1.049. 49 of the game's 120 plays came in garbage time, and the plays still imply a New England win of about 16 to 21, not 28 (gap +12.4 / +6.9). Las Vegas lost by 28 yet averaged 5.37 net yards a play and -0.037 EPA a play when the game was live; Brock Bowers caught 8 for 110 yards and a TD. New England won with four cornerbacks officially Out (Gonzalez, Davis, Prunty, Canada).

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Raiders: Jalen Nailor (WR, Out); Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Out); Trey Zuhn III (C, Out). Patriots: Mack Hollins (WR, Out); Carlton Davis III (CB, Out); Reggie Gilliam (FB, Out); Christian Gonzalez (CB, Out); Karon Prunty (CB, Out); Channing Canada (CB, Out). Left a play with an injury listed in the play-by-play text (final status not in the data): Patriots: C.Woods, Dr.Jones, W.Campbell.

Vikings at Saints (Sunday): Vikings 23, Saints 13

Verdict: FLATTERED: Vikings / UNDERSTATED: Saints

Minnesota won 23-13 with an offense that averaged -0.084 EPA a play; its defense held New Orleans to -0.325, 142 yards on 43 snaps (3.30 a play), no explosive plays, 2 of 10 on third down and 2 giveaways. Kyler Murray was 24 of 29 for 229 yards and a TD (competitive CPOE +11.5); Tyler Shough was 16 of 25 for 96 yards and 2 INTs. Aaron Jones ran 25 times for 113 yards. Seven of New Orleans' 13 points came on a fumble returned for a touchdown. Gap: Vikings +3.2 / +3.6, Saints -3.2 / -3.6 (competitive / all plays). Minnesota's 10-point margin is about 3 points bigger than its offense earned.

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Vikings: Christian Darrisaw (T, Out); Charles Demmings (CB, Out). Saints: Kaden Elliss (LB, Out); Anfernee Jennings (LB, Out); Jeremiah Wright (G, Out). Left a play with an injury listed in the play-by-play text (final status not in the data): Vikings: T.Hockenson.

Browns at Jets (Sunday): Browns 12, Jets 17

Verdict: NO MIRAGE: Jets 17, Browns 12 is what the plays say

Cleveland gained 197 yards on 65 snaps (3.03 a play), converted 4 of 16 on third down and took 8 sacks; Deshaun Watson was 15 of 33 for 155 yards with a CPOE of -15.6. The Jets were only modestly better (278 yards, 4.34 a play, 8 of 17 on third down) with Geno Smith at a CPOE of -9.0. The 5-point margin matches the EPA-implied 6 (gap -1.6 / -1.1). Breece Hall was Out; Braelon Allen ran 24 times for 116 yards and Garrett Wilson caught 7 for 104 and a TD. No garbage time.

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Browns: Tylan Wallace (WR, Out); Teven Jenkins (G, Out); Kalia Davis (DT, Out); Mike Hall Jr. (DT, Out); Mason Graham (DT, Out); Dillon Gabriel (QB, Out); Carsen Ryan (TE, Out). Jets: Dylan Parham (G, Out); Breece Hall (RB, Out); Adonai Mitchell (WR, Out); Francisco Mauigoa (LB, Out). Left a play with an injury listed in the play-by-play text (final status not in the data): Browns: K.Concepcion.

Colts at Steelers (Sunday): Colts 22, Steelers 34

Verdict: FLATTERED: Steelers (modestly) / UNDERSTATED: Colts

Pittsburgh won 34-22 on 6.81 net yards a play to Indianapolis's 4.81, with no giveaways on either side and just 52 Steelers snaps to 69. Pittsburgh was 4 of 11 on third down, Indianapolis 4/15. Aaron Rodgers was 22 of 31 for 235 yards and 3 TDs; Daniel Jones was 24 of 44 for 267 yards, no TDs and no interceptions. Jaylen Warren ran 15 times for 101 yards and a TD and caught 6 for 87. The plays support a Pittsburgh win of about 7 to 10, not 12 (gap +5.3 / +2.5).

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Colts: Arden Key (DE, Out); Ashton Dulin (WR, Out); Will Mallory (TE, Out); Jaylon Carlies (LB, Out). Steelers: DeShon Elliott (S, Out); Jamel Dean (CB, Out); Michael Pittman (WR, Out). No in-game injuries are listed in the play-by-play text.

Texans at Titans (Sunday): Texans 26, Titans 3

Verdict: NO MIRAGE: Houston's 23-point win is what the plays say

Houston's defense allowed -0.541 EPA a play. Tennessee gained 187 yards on 58 snaps (3.22 a play), took 4 sacks and gave it away 2 times; Cam Ward was 23 of 36 for 170 yards with a competitive CPOE of -16.5. C.J. Stroud was 26 of 34 for 261 yards (CPOE +9.9, tracking CPOE +13.1). The plays imply a Houston margin of 20 (competitive) to 23 (all plays); the actual margin was 23. Houston's first win leaves it 1-4.

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Texans: Tank Dell (WR, Out). Titans: Amani Hooker (S, Out). Left a play with an injury listed in the play-by-play text (final status not in the data): Texans: J.Pitre.

Giants at Commanders (Sunday): Giants 27, Commanders 27

Verdict: DISAGREEMENT: a 27-27 overtime tie the two views read differently

The Giants ran 83 snaps for 409 yards (4.93 a play) and the Commanders 60 snaps for 381 yards (6.35 a play) with 0 giveaways to New York's 2. Washington took 5 sacks; Jayden Daniels was 17 of 26 for 199 yards (CPOE +8.1) and ran 8 times for 104 yards and 2 TDs. Jameis Winston was 33 of 54 for 326 yards and 3 TDs on 56 dropbacks; Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely each caught 11. Competitive snaps favor Washington by 6.2 points; all snaps favor New York by 1.0, so no flag is assigned. The game ended 27-27 after overtime.

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Giants: Jason Pinnock (S, Out); Chauncey Golston (DE, Out). Commanders: Stefon Diggs (WR, Out); Marcus Mariota (QB, Out); Charles Omenihu (DE, Out); Nick Cross (S, Out); Percy Butler (S, Out); Tyler Owens (S, Out). Left a play with an injury listed in the play-by-play text (final status not in the data): Giants: C.Hood, J.Eluemunor, T.Nubin.

Broncos at Chargers (Sunday): Broncos 23, Chargers 17

Verdict: Both views agree the margin was in line: Broncos by 6 on a game of no offense

Denver won 23-17 despite going 1 of 12 on third down and gaining 224 yards at 3.93 a play, because its defense held Los Angeles to -0.397 EPA a play (3.82 a play, 5 sacks, 3 giveaways). Bo Nix was 16 of 27 for 123 yards and a TD; Justin Herbert was 14 of 23 for 121 yards, a TD and an INT, sacked 5 times. The plays say Denver by about 7 to 8 (gap -1.5 / -1.0), so the 6-point final is fair. Los Angeles played without Joe Alt, Trevor Penning and Kayode Awosika up front, and Trey Lance was Doubtful.

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Broncos: Pat Surtain II (CB, Out); Riley Moss (CB, Out). Chargers: Donte Jackson (CB, Out); Derwin James (S, Out); Kayode Awosika (G, Out); Trey Lance (QB, Doubtful); Trevor Penning (G, Out); Quentin Johnston (WR, Out); Joe Alt (T, Out); Brenen Thompson (WR, Out). Left a play with an injury listed in the play-by-play text (final status not in the data): Broncos: T.Hufanga.

Lions at Cardinals (Sunday): Lions 45, Cardinals 21

Verdict: FLATTERED: Lions (still the better team by far) / UNDERSTATED: Cardinals

Detroit won 45-21 on 6.34 net yards a play to 4.67 and 14.6 percent explosive plays. The 24-point margin is about 11 points more than the plays support (implied 13 competitive, 15 all plays), because 56 of the game's 135 plays came in garbage time. Jacoby Brissett's line (29 of 46, 292 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 5 sacks) is better than his competitive snaps: EPA per dropback -0.211 and CPOE -10.8 while the game was live. Jared Goff was 19 of 30 for 271 yards and 3 TDs; Jahmyr Gibbs ran 25 times for 151 yards and 2 TDs.

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Lions: Rock Ya-Sin (CB, Out); Ben Bartch (G, Out); Cade Mays (C, Out); Brian Branch (S, Out). Cardinals: Andrew Wingard (S, Out); Isaiah Adams (G, Out). Left a play with an injury listed in the play-by-play text (final status not in the data): Cardinals: W.Williams; Lions: T.Kennedy.

49ers at Seahawks (Sunday): 49ers 32, Seahawks 29

Verdict: UNDERSTATED: 49ers / FLATTERED: Seahawks (the largest gap of the week)

San Francisco won 32-29 and the plays say it was a two-touchdown game (implied 15.6 competitive, 14.5 all plays). Seattle gave it away 4 times (2 INTs by Sam Darnold, 2 fumbles lost), took 5 sacks, averaged 4.18 net yards a play and went 3 of 12 on third down; its offense averaged -0.425 EPA a play. One San Francisco touchdown was a defensive fumble recovery in the end zone with 18 seconds left in the second quarter. San Francisco's own offense was not good (-0.118 EPA a play, 4.96 net yards a play, 4 of 12 on third down) and Brock Purdy (19 of 30, 189 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) sat at -0.061 EPA per dropback with a CPOE of +5.4 (tracking CPOE +10.5). The result came from the 49ers' defense (-0.425 EPA allowed) and Seattle's mistakes; Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 5 for 102 and a TD in the loss. Gap: 49ers -12.6 / -11.5, Seahawks +12.6 / +11.5 (competitive / all plays).

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): 49ers: Kyle Juszczyk (FB, Out); Nick Bosa (DE, Out); Marques Sigle (S, Out); James Thompson Jr. (DT, Out). Seahawks: Chazz Surratt (LB, Out); Zach Charbonnet (RB, Out); Julian Neal (CB, Out). Left a play with an injury listed in the play-by-play text (final status not in the data): 49ers: D.Samuel.

Ravens at Falcons (Sunday): Ravens 30, Falcons 23

Verdict: EVEN: Ravens flattered slightly (Sunday night, overtime)

Baltimore won 30-23 in overtime after a 23-23 tie through four quarters, with Lamar Jackson Out: Tyler Huntley was 24 of 33 for 201 yards and 2 TDs (CPOE +6.4). The teams were close on efficiency (BAL +0.038 EPA a play, ATL -0.022); Atlanta had more yards per play (5.73 to 5.49) and converted 9 of 17 on third down to Baltimore's 8/14. Seven of Atlanta's 23 points came on a Baltimore fumble returned for a touchdown. Michael Penix Jr. was 19 of 32 for 240 yards and 1 TD (CPOE -5.0); Drake London caught 7 for 118 yards. Derrick Henry ran 25 times for 102 yards. Gap: Ravens +3.6 / +3.8, Falcons -3.6 / -3.8 (competitive / all plays). The Ravens' margin includes the overtime touchdown.

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Ravens: Trey Hendrickson (LB, Out); Lamar Jackson (QB, Out); Cam Jurgens (C, Out). Falcons: Yasir Abdullah (LB, Out). No in-game injuries are listed in the play-by-play text.

Bills at Rams (Monday): Bills 37, Rams 34

Verdict: MONDAY NIGHT: even game, Bills slightly flattered, Rams slightly understated

Buffalo won 37-34 in overtime after Los Angeles scored a touchdown with 8 seconds left in regulation to tie it. Buffalo gained 438 yards on 58 plays (7.55 a play, 22.4 percent explosive) but went 2 of 7 on third down; Los Angeles gained 454 yards on 79 plays (5.75) with no giveaways to Buffalo's 2. Matthew Stafford was 40 of 55 for 383 yards and 3 TDs with no interceptions; Puka Nacua caught 17 for 138 yards and a TD. Josh Allen was 12 of 20 for 210 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT but ran 10 times for 121 yards and a TD, and James Cook ran 25 times for 111 yards and 2 TDs. Tyler Bass's 45-yard field goal decided overtime. Rest of the numbers: EPA a play was +0.291 for Buffalo and +0.231 for Los Angeles, and the whole game was played in a live win-probability band. Gap: Bills +4.1 / +4.0, Rams -4.1 / -4.0 (competitive / all plays). Neither game gap clears a touchdown; the result is a coin-flip game that went one way.

Official Out/Doubtful (Week 5 report): Bills: Ed Oliver (DE, Out); Josh Palmer (WR, Out). Rams: none listed Out/Doubtful. Left a play with an injury listed in the play-by-play text (final status not in the data): Bills: S.Brown.

3. Quarterbacks (15+ dropbacks, Week 5)

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; Att excludes sacks. EPA/db = expected points added per dropback. CPOE = completion percentage over expected. Tracking columns come from player-tracking data, Week 5. Lamar Jackson (Ravens) did not play. Caleb Williams (Bears) did not take a snap.

Looked better than they were

• Jacoby Brissett (ARI): 29 of 46, 292 yards, 3 TDs, but competitive EPA per dropback -0.211 and CPOE -10.8 (all-play CPOE +0.9); 5 sacks. Garbage time padded the line.
• Jameis Winston (NYG): 33 of 54, 326 yards, 3 TDs on 56 dropbacks, but a competitive CPOE of -3.3 and EPA per dropback of +0.083; it took 83 snaps to tie.
• Dak Prescott (DAL): 24 of 43, 316 yards, but 2 INTs, competitive CPOE -14.6 and EPA per dropback -0.197; six drops by his receivers on a charted night.
• Kirk Cousins (LV): 19 of 28, 243 yards, but a competitive CPOE of -4.6 (all-play +0.4) and 3 sacks in a 28-point loss.
• Trevor Lawrence (JAX): 24 of 39, 331 yards, but CPOE -3.3 and an INT; the win was by 2.
• Aaron Jones (MIN): 21 carries for 93 yards at -0.34 EPA a carry (competitive snaps).
• Emanuel Wilson (SEA): 20 carries for 61 yards at -0.42 EPA a carry (competitive snaps).
• Bhayshul Tuten (JAX): 22 carries for 72 yards at -0.25 EPA a carry (competitive snaps).

Looked worse than they were

• Joe Burrow (CIN): 23 of 32 for just 190 yards, but 4 TDs, no INTs, competitive CPOE +12.6 and +0.365 EPA per dropback.
• Brock Purdy (SF): 19 of 30, 189 yards, 1 INT and -0.061 EPA per dropback reads as a dud; CPOE +5.4 and tracking CPOE +10.5.
• Kyler Murray (MIN): 24 of 29, 229 yards, 1 TD; CPOE +11.5 (tracking CPOE +6.8) with a 0.0 percent aggressiveness rating.
• Jayden Daniels (WSH): 17 of 26, 199 yards, no passing TDs, 5 sacks taken; CPOE +8.1, plus 8 carries for 104 yards and 2 TDs.
• Tyler Huntley (BAL): 24 of 33, 201 yards, 2 TDs, CPOE +6.4 starting for Lamar Jackson.
• C.J. Stroud (HOU): 26 of 34 for 261 yards and 1 TD; CPOE +9.9 (tracking CPOE +13.1) in a 23-point win.
• Josh Allen (BUF): 12 of 20 for 210 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT is a modest line; he was +0.399 EPA per dropback and ran 10 times for 121 yards and a TD on Monday night.

4. Skill players (competitive plays, minimum 7 targets or 12 carries)

Efficiency the box score hid or the result buried

• Christian Watson (GB): 5 of 7 targets for 141 yards and 2 TDs, +1.52 EPA per target.
• Parker Washington (JAX): 6 of 9 targets for 124 yards and 2 TDs, +1.12 EPA per target.
• Brock Bowers (LV): 6 of 7 targets for 93 yards and 1 TD, +1.08 EPA per target.
• Mike Evans (SF): 7 of 11 targets for 113 yards and 1 TD, +0.94 EPA per target.
• Justin Jefferson (MIN): 6 of 7 targets for 79 yards and 1 TD, +0.78 EPA per target.
• Drake London (ATL): 7 of 11 targets for 118 yards and 0 TDs, +0.68 EPA per target.
• Bucky Irving (TB): 15 carries for 129 yards, +0.40 EPA a carry (competitive snaps).
• Ollie Gordon II (MIA): 12 carries for 63 yards, +0.33 EPA a carry (competitive snaps).
• Jahmyr Gibbs (DET): 14 carries for 81 yards, +0.21 EPA a carry (competitive snaps).

Targets that did not pay off

• Mark Andrews (BAL): 4 of 7 targets for 28 yards, -1.33 EPA per target.
• Bijan Robinson (ATL): 4 of 7 targets for 32 yards, -0.38 EPA per target.
• Jerry Jeudy (CLE): 3 of 7 targets for 19 yards, -0.20 EPA per target.

5. Charted data

Season-to-date through Week 5 for all 32 teams; every Week 5 game is charted. Season-to-date, Minnesota blitzes on 62 percent of dropbacks (next highest Tampa Bay at 41 percent). The Eagles' offense still leads the league in QB-fault sacks (7 of 13 sacks taken). Green Bay and Dallas lead in receiver drops (11 each). Thursday: Dallas had 6 receiver drops and 11 contested-ball targets on its dropbacks and took 0 sacks; Tampa Bay had 1 drop and 1 sack.

6. Pressure cross-check (Weeks 1-4 plus Thursday)

Weekly advanced pressure stats. Minnesota's defense leads in total pressures, ahead of Atlanta, Detroit, Buffalo and Las Vegas. Among quarterbacks, Bryce Young, Dak Prescott and Tyler Shough have faced the most pressure.

Quarterbacks facing the most pressure:

7. Coaching and coordinator flags (directional only, not graded)

Directional flags only, never baked into a grade; defensive samples are small in October, and the data feeds list head coaches but not coordinators, so these flags are team-level. Fourth-down column: go-for-it count over 4th-and-1-to-4 snaps between the opponent's 15 and the offense's own 35, competitive snaps, Weeks 1-5. PROE is pass rate over expected on early downs, competitive snaps, Weeks 1-5. The pressure proxy uses every dropback, Weeks 1-5. Baltimore (0 of 3) and Tennessee (0 of 6) never go; Denver went 1 of 7 and the Chargers 1 of 6. Indianapolis goes most often by volume (7 of 13). Carolina (+7.1), Cincinnati (+6.5), Pittsburgh (+4.5) and Cleveland (+4.6) are the most pass-heavy relative to expectation; the Chargers (-12.0), Atlanta (-9.1), Tennessee (-8.9) and Miami (-7.4) the most run-heavy. Minnesota's defense generates the most pressure (33.3 sacks plus hits per 100 dropbacks), then Seattle (28.4); Philadelphia (12.6) the least.

8. Power rankings through Week 5

• 1. 49ers+1.84
• 2. Seahawks+1.31
• 3. Jaguars+1.23
• 4. Bills+1.18
• 5. Patriots+1.04
• 6. Rams+0.97
• 7. Ravens+0.96
• 8. Chiefs+0.81
• 9. Packers+0.71
• 10. Bears+0.48
• 23. Steelers-0.52
• 24. Eagles-0.84
• 25. Giants-0.93
• 26. Saints-0.94
• 27. Dolphins-1.09
• 28. Cowboys-1.11
• 29. Chargers-1.15
• 30. Colts-1.17
• 31. Cardinals-1.44
• 32. Titans-1.65

-20+2

Opponent-adjusted composite (0 = league average)

Composite and method as described above (Weeks 1-5, competitive plays, opponent-adjusted). Adj Off / Adj Def are opponent-adjusted EPA per play (higher is better for both). Prior rank is last week's published ranking. Remaining SOS rank: 1 = hardest remaining schedule by opponents' composite (Weeks 6-18). QB-availability flag: no passer has 85 percent of the team's pass attempts this season, so the rating blends quarterbacks.

9. Schedule, rest and injuries going into Week 6

Quarterbacks out per the official Week 5 report: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Marcus Mariota (Commanders), Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Dillon Gabriel (Browns); Trey Lance (Chargers) was Doubtful. Teams on bye in Week 6: Bengals, Vikings, Lions, Dolphins. Week 6 reports publish Wednesday.