Ohio State Lost at USC. The Numbers Say Shrug. The Betting Market Says Panic.
Ohio State slid from first to third in our rankings, and the biggest damage hit teams you weren't watching.
Ohio State lost 30-18 at USC on Saturday, and the college football world acted like the Buckeyes fell off a cliff. The math says they took a step down a stair.
THE SHRUG
Ohio State's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, the best single power number we have, slid from 28.6 to 26.3. That drops them from first to second on that measure, behind Georgia. In our blended rankings they fall from first to third. The betting market treated it like a funeral. Ohio State's title odds went from +500 to +1200, which ties them for seventh, with Georgia now the favorite at +340. The stats still see a top-three team that lost one road game it was outplayed in (USC had a 78 percent postgame win probability and led by 18 after three quarters). The stats and the market disagree by a lot. When that happens, we say so rather than pick the one we like.
USC, for the record, is not a title team in the numbers. The Trojans are 20th in the efficiency rating and 57th in season points per play. One great night, not a new identity.
THE REAL DAMAGE WAS ELSEWHERE
The bigger drops this week were not the famous ones. Oklahoma fell 14 spots, from 31st to 45th, after losing 42-25 at home to South Carolina (the stats gave Oklahoma a 2 percent shot). Florida fell 11 after a 27-8 loss to Georgia. Wisconsin was shut out 30-0 at Iowa and fell 8. Virginia lost 51-7 at Wake Forest and dropped 18 spots, the biggest fall of anybody.
THE CLIMBERS
Baylor jumped 12 spots after winning 41-9 at UCF, and its efficiency rating rose from 8.5 to 11.2. Wake Forest moved up five, and ranks sixth in season points per play to go with it.
TWO HONEST FLAGS
Liberty climbed 10 spots to 20th in our table, but the efficiency rating alone has them 28th. The gap comes from the market piece, which for Liberty is still a preseason win total of 8.5. Don't call them a top-20 team off that.
Duke and UCLA are the other disagreement. Duke is 39th in our table but ninth in season points per play, and UCLA is 8-0 and first in season points per play but 15th in the efficiency rating. We aren't calling either underrated.
THE BOX SCORE LIED A LITTLE
Notre Dame beat Navy 35-13, but the stats-based win probability said only 69 percent. SMU lost at Syracuse by three while carrying a 58 percent win probability. James Madison lost at home to Troy with an 86 percent win probability. Scoreboards, man.